Short-term Blood Pressure Variability and Cardiovascular Risk in Individuals with Spinal Cord Injury: A Prospective Study
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Abstract
Introduction: Individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) are at elevated risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, largely due to autonomic dysfunction and blood pressure instability. While conventional cardiovascular risk scores are used for stratification, emerging evidence suggests that short-term blood pressure variability (BPV) may serve as an independent predictor of adverse outcomes. This study aimed to assess the relationship between short-term BPV and cardiovascular events in individuals with SCI over a 2-year follow-up period.
Methodology: A prospective cohort study was conducted involving 150 individuals with SCI, stratified into low, medium, and high BPV groups based on 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) at baseline. BPV indices included standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), and average real variability of systolic BP (ARV-SBP). Cardiovascular outcomes—including myocardial infarction, stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), cardiovascular-related hospitalization, and all-cause mortality—were recorded over two years. Cox proportional hazards modeling and ROC analysis were employed to identify independent predictors and assess discriminative ability.
Results: Out of 150 participants, 142 completed the study (dropout rate: 5.3%). The high BPV group had a significantly greater prevalence of diabetes (38%), severe SCI (ASIA A/B: 76%), and higher Framingham Risk Scores (p < 0.001). Cardiovascular events were most frequent in the high BPV group: myocardial infarction (12%), stroke/TIA (8%), and CV hospitalizations (18%), with a composite event rate of 26% (p < 0.001). High BPV was an independent predictor of cardiovascular events (HR: 3.71, 95% CI: 1.52–9.06; p = 0.004), as was diabetes mellitus and Framingham risk. ARV-SBP showed the strongest predictive value (AUC: 0.81), with an optimal cutoff of 13.2 mmHg (82% sensitivity, 74% specificity).
Conclusion: Short-term BPV, particularly elevated ARV-SBP, is a significant and independent predictor of cardiovascular events in individuals with SCI. These findings underscore the need to incorporate BPV monitoring into routine cardiovascular risk assessment in this high-risk population.
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